CFI - Cinematic Forecasting and Investment Assurance LLC ™
Investor Opportunities in Motion Picture Profits through Feature Film Box-Office Forecasts / Pre-Production Script Development / Cinematic Archetype Casting / Component Formulation Design / U.S. and Global Market Consulting & Mass Audience Forecasting
Weekly internet updates from CFI Assurance will no longer be publicly available on this website (as of November 21, 2011) due to newly formed alliances and private contract arrangements with other motion picture entities. CFI will continue to privately forecast and database the valuations on all wide-released North American motion pictures but they will not appear here in the website. The data that already appears here will remain here for your further reference and study. (If you still wish to receive our private updates, please send your name and phone number to michael@filmforecast.com and we will contact you to confirm you ID and industry affiliation.)
Thank You.
Back in the 1960's, when screenwriter William Goldman made his famous remark that "nobody (in Hollywood) knows anything" ... what he was really trying to say was that "nobody in Hollywood knows HOW TO MEASURE anything" BEFORE they produce it.
But since he said it the way he did, everybody in Hollywood has used his quote to do whatever they feel like doing in motion picture development. Instead of realizing there are better ways of doing business than throwing darts at the wall, they have allowed themselves to make continuous mistakes ... and they fail to profit.
To his credit, Goldman's second rule was that story is "structure". Structure is what CFI is constantly auditing and improving through mass-audience biometric response analysis and archetype recognition. We correctly measure the inherent story structure with the future mass-audience resonance to that storyline and the impact of proposed casting and sexual chemistry, plus provide studio-level forecasting metrics before you spend money on any project. You don't have to give up creativity ... you just have to sidestep the errors that others didn't know how to identify and measure.
Future Playability & Box-Office Profit Forecasts Scripts, productions, or film projects that have NOT been released, or are still in development,
or still in production, or that are wide-releasing in future weekends are posted
here every Sunday night ... months prior to their wide-release.
U.S. Box-profitable income is forecast at 183% of the production cost, before prints & advertising, distribution & fees, and points & residuals have been subtracted. Future forecasts for upcoming screenplays are posted on this page days, weeks, months, or years before their wide-releases. NOTE:
The data below is only a portion of the data that is available from CFI
to assist producers or financiers in selecting scripts and projects
that will create the strongest resonance and attract the largest
audiences ... before they begin production.
Originally Posted on October 24th, 2011 (This forecast was created on 10/24/11 at 11:00PM PST, twenty-four days before the opening day estimate will be published on Saturday morning 11/19/11
HAPPY FEET TWO (Scheduled for release by Warner Bros. on Friday 11/18/11) Positive Component Valuations = +68 Negative Component Valuations = -78* -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of -10* = NOT box-profitable in North America (The budget is not in yet. Hopefully not too expensive.)
*UPDATE 11-17-11; Budget is in at 135 million - TOO expensive - reverses the forecast.
This script contained 2 component organization or formulation errors, 0 archetype casting errors, and no sexual chemistry successes. Overseas forecast score = 8 (Overseas box-office NET will be more than $28 million.)
Originally Posted on October 24th, 2011 (This forecast was created on 10/24/11 at 11:00PM PST, twenty-four days before the opening day estimate will be published on Saturday morning 11/19/11
TWILIGHT SAGA: BREAKING DAWN (PART 1) (Scheduled for release by Summit Ent. on Friday 11/18/11) Positive Component Valuations = +62 Negative Component Valuations = -46 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of +16 = BOX-OFFICE PROFITABLE in North America (The budget is not in yet.)
UPDATE 11-17-11; Budget is in at $100 million.
This script contained 1 component organization or formulation errors, 0 archetype casting errors, and no sexual chemistry successes. Overseas forecast score = 8 (Overseas box-office NET will be more than $28 million.)
Originally Posted on October 24th, 2011 (This forecast was created on 10/24/11 at 11:00PM PST, twenty-nine days before the opening day estimate will be published on Thursday morning 11/24/11
THE MUPPETS (Scheduled for release by Buena Vista. on Wednesday 11/23/11) Positive Component Valuations = +58 Negative Component Valuations = -48 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of +10 = BOX-OFFICE PROFITABLE in North America (The budget is not in yet. Hopefully not too expensive.)
This script contained 1 component organization or formulation errors, 0 archetype casting errors, and no sexual chemistry successes. Overseas forecast score = 8 (Overseas box-office NET will be more than $28 million.)
Originally Posted on October 24th, 2011 (This forecast was created on 10/24/11 at 11:00PM PST, twenty-nine days before the opening day estimate will be published on Thursday morning 11/24/11
ARTHUR CHRISTMAS (Scheduled for release by Sony/Columbia on Wednesday 11/23/11) Positive Component Valuations = +66 Negative Component Valuations = -48 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of +18 = BOX-OFFICE PROFITABLE in North America (The budget is not in yet. Hopefully not too expensive.)
This script contained 1 component organization or formulation errors, 0 archetype casting errors, and no sexual chemistry successes. Overseas forecast score = 8 (Overseas box-office NET will be more than $28 million.)
Originally Posted on October 24th, 2011 (This forecast was created on 10/24/11 at 11:00PM PST, twenty-nine days before the opening day estimate will be published on Thursday morning 11/24/11
HUGO (Scheduled for release by Paramount on Wednesday 11/23/11) Positive Component Valuations = +58 Negative Component Valuations = -68 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of -10 = NOT box-profitable in North America (The budget is not in yet.)
This script contained 3 component organization or formulation errors, 0 archetype casting errors, and no sexual chemistry successes. Overseas forecast score = 8 (Overseas box-office NET will be more than $28 million.)
When you REMOVE or neutralize the errant structural component formulations in your film projects - BEFORE you shoot the picture - you
are GUARANTEED to succeed globally and in the U.S.
These
mathematically proven measurements and validated results (see ROI page 7.7 for
the financial returns on CFI measured scripts) will give you the
power to know exactly how and what it was that William Goldman and
everybody else in town did not. These structural measurements from unique, proprietary audience response metrics, insure your project's success and insure the theatrical attendance that is needed for great
returns on investments. Losing money on scripts doesn't make you more
creative. And turning down scripts that go on to make another studio a
pile of cash doesn't make you a genius.
CFI can
show you how to measure your scripts more intelligently and more
concisely to help you to make ten times more money than you are making
right now. CFI can share its data on how to pick successful scripts 19
times out of 20 (instead of merely four times out of twenty). CFI can
give you the tools you need to be more successful than any other
creative content company in town.
Each
and every structural element or story component found inside any script or
storyline has a unique numerical valuation that corresponds to its
inherent value to the global mass audience and ticket sales. The total mass-audience attraction to any script, TV or film project can be accurately calculated
long before time or money is invested into the project.
CFI
also has the exclusive proprietary analysis required for calculating a
project's value to the mass audience prior to development. With
numerical valuations for every component available to a media project,
we can accurately predict the 1. profitability, 2. playability,
3. pitchability, and 4. promotability of any project you have in mind. We can increase your return on investment by adding value to the project
that increases viewership. And that returns millions of dollars more
to your profits than was originally possible.
CFI
assists film
and television producers or financiers with the algorithms required for
avoiding the structural component errors and formulation mistakes in
scripts that have
historically destroyed the resonance and the word-of-mouth income of
feature films. We
consult with producers and writers on incorporating and the most
valuable structural components and formulations in film-making for
guaranteeing
U.S. and global audience enthusiasm ... either before they start
pre-production, during casting, while shooting, or in post.
On average only 25% of all wide-released pictures in the last 10 years cleared a profit at box offices in North America ... and
even less worldwide.
THE MAJORITY OF THE FILMS
THAT FAILED COULD HAVE ACTUALLY BEEN CORRECTED BEFORE ANY OF THEM
WERE RELEASED, AND THEY WOULD HAVE MADE A PROFIT AT THE U.S. BOX-OFFICE.
The
majority of studio projects have the capacity to generate profits at
the box office as long as errant
structural components ... and the mis-castings that betray viewers ... are
first eliminated.
Every studio
film can prosper IF the correct story components that provide the
richest resonance for multiple ticket sales in the U.S. (and
for global mass-audiences) are first incorporated.
Rather than relying on the typical old-school hindsight, speculation, or subjective excuse generation that previously pervaded the film industry, CFI has developed clear and objective delineations on why scripts are succeeding or failing. From over thirty years of granular analysis, detailed audience tracking and structural component and formulation databasing of domestic and foreign productions, CFI has created a methodology that guarantees resounding and continuous successes.
By using the correct component formulations, producers and financiers can enlarge box-office profits by hundreds millions of dollars within the U.S. market (not just world-wide.) CFI proves this everyday by correctly forecasting the box-office profit of new wide-release scripts. By reading the scripts and evaluating their cinematic archetype casting proposals before they go into production, CFI can forecast which scripts have too many structural component errors to be profitable, and which scripts have avoided these errors correctly and will create return on their investment and make a U.S. box-office profit. CFI has achieved a forecast accuracy on scripts of more than 91% over the past ten years on over 1900 projects.
And when it comes to the foreign market, we can also forecast the range of gross incomes with 70% for exact sells and 95% accuracy for the oversell as well. (The best accuracy studio forecasters have is less that 25% for domestic product, and no accurate overall forecasting for overseas markets at all. The best opening weekend accuracy that studio forecasters have is 72% on average, and they are only forecasting the domestic opening weekend grosses, not the entire box-office profitability for the twelve week run of the show. If the producers of the films forecast in the examples below had incorporated CFI consulting into their production planning, they would be earning hundreds of millions of dollars in more income, rather than losing the hundreds of millions they are going to lose, when or if they even get released.)
More Future U.S. Motion Picture Box-Profit Forecasts Additional scripts or projects NOT YET RELEASED, that are still in development, pre-production, or post-production. Future forecasts for upcoming screenplays are posted in this portion months and years before their wide-releases.
Originally Posted on January 24th, 2011 (This forecast was posted on 12/24/10 at 3:30PM PST, thirty-three days before the wide release estimate will be published on Saturday morning 01/26/11.) SHELTER
(Scheduled for wide-release by Weinstein Company on 02/25/11) Positive Structural Component Valuations = +52 Negative Structural Valuations = - 22 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of
+30 = BOX-OFFICE PROFITABLE in North America
(The budget is not in yet but i expected to be higher than $37 million.)
This script contains 1 structural component or formulation errors,
1 archetype casting error ... and no sexual chemistry success.
Overseas forecast score = 6 (Overseas box-office NET will be between $11-28 million.)
Originally Posted on July 17th, 2008 IF THESE CREATIVES HAD
FOLLOWED OUR CONSULTATION ON THIS PROJECT,
THEY WOULDN'T HAVE MADE THIS FILM & THEY WOULDN'T BE LOSING MONEY. (This forecast was posted on 7/17/2008 at 11:30PM PST, months before the opening dollar estimate will be published on Saturday morning ??? /2010.) TRAVELING (Scheduled for wide-release by Universal on Friday, ??? 2010.) Positive Component Valuations = +77 Negative Component Valuations = -100 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of -23 = NOT box-profitable in North America (The budget is not in yet, but it would need to be really low to profit.) This screenplay contained FOUR component organization or formulation errors, 3 archetype casting errors, and 1 sexual chemistry success. If the director or their producers had been aware of those component errors before shooting, they could have made a different movie & increased the ROI for investors. Overseas forecast score = 3 (Overseas box-office NET will be less than $9 million.)
Originally Forecast on October 9th, 2007 IF THESE CREATIVES HAD FOLLOWED OUR CONSULTATION ON THIS PROJECT,
THEY WOULDN'T HAVE MADE THIS FILM & THEY WOULDN'T BE LOSING MONEY. (This forecast was posted on 2/13/08 at 2:00AM PST, a year before the opening day estimate will be published on Saturday morning ?/?/2009.)
POSSESSION (Scheduled for wide-release by Yari Film Group on Friday ? 2009) Positive Component Valuations = +53 Negative Component Valuations = -66 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of -13 = NOT box-profitable in North America (The budget is not in yet.) This script contained 3 component organization or formulation errors, 3 archetype casting errors, and also no sexual chemistry success. All these screenplay and story errors could have been avoided and the film would've received even a greater income but the producers were unaware of them before filming. Overseas forecast score = 2 (Overseas box-office NET will be less than $11 million.)
Originally Posted on May 6th, 2008 IF THESE CREATIVES HAD FOLLOWED OUR CONSULTATION ON THIS PROJECT, THEY WOULD NOT MAKE THIS FILM, AND WOULD'VE AVOIDED LOSING MONEY. (This forecast was posted on 5/6/08 at 11:00PM PST, several months before the opening day estimate will be published on Saturday morning ?/?/2008.)
TENDERNESS starring Russell Crowe and Jon Foster (Scheduled for wide-release by Paramount Vantage on Friday ???, 2008.) Positive Component Valuations = +50 Negative Component Valuations = -87 -------------------------------------------- CFI Total Component Score of -37 = NOT box-profitable in North America (The budget is not in yet, but it will need to be impossibly lower than the profitable average of $37 million in order to profit.) The script contained 5 big component organization or formulation errors, 2 hero-archetype casting errors, and no sexual chemistry successes. If the producers had corrected the errors before shooting, this film would've made much more money & ROI for investors. Instead of making $ this filck is heading for a DVD rack. Overseas forecast score = 2 (Overseas box-office NET will be less than $9 million.)
There are forecast scores and formulation evaluations for these three (3) films which we are NOT allowed by contract to post on the website until sneak previews have been conducted;MR. NOBODY (to be released 2011), NEVER LET ME GO (to be released 2011), MY MOTHER'S BOYFRIEND(to be released in 2011). Their forecast scores, component evaluations and profitability forecasts can still be made available for review during private consultations. There are other projects that CFI Assurance is contractually not permitted to publish, discuss, or acknowledge and they will not be presented on this site, nor will their profit forecast be revealed until the North American wide-release has commenced. There are hundreds of films we have not reported (due to their dismal forecasts), or in that they were produced for straight-to-video release. And of course, there are thousands of scripts that have been evaluated and financiers have passed on, and thus will never be produced, nor receive a wide-release because they did not receive a passing score in auditing, or their component formulations were not correctable or rewritable. CFI's evaluations of those types of projects are available in private consultation at any time with investors or producers.
How do producers, directors, actors, and investors FAIL to make as money and profit as much as they could have?
Because they lack the correct statistical research and market data that CFI provides. Data that comes with a validated track record that guarantees box-office profitability. With this new data, CFI can guarantee a consistently greater success rate in mass audience playability and profitability in the U.S. and worldwide. CFI coverage and playability analysis correctly identifies which scripts and projects will attract enough mass-audiences in order to clear a profit at U.S. box-offices, and which projects can gather income overseas. (Because if you can correctly attract larger audiences and generate more word-of-mouth in the North America and overseas,you can correctly attract larger audiences and generate more word-of-mouth everywhere.) CFI consults in the development, production and pre-screenings. CFI reviews screenplays and provides deeper coverage on a script's components than others have been able to, along with describing how scripts will or will not work for audiences (while providing evidence of the same cause and effect outcomes for previous releases).CFI also describes the exact reasons WHY audiences generate word-of-mouth for the different types of components in your project. CFI also advises on the many changes or improvements that can be made to the script, and provides new archetypal casting suggestionsbefore projects enter into development or production(in order to increase opening weekend incomes and enlarge ancillary market shares). CFI has achieved a forecast accuracy of selecting profitable scripts that is more than 91% accurate over the past ten years while working on over 1900 projects. And when it comes to the foreign market, we can also forecast the range of gross incomes with 70% for exact sells and 95% accuracy for the oversell as well.
CFI provides the best data available and consults on which screenplays to invest time or money in, and which scripts to pass on. CFI profit and playability analysis defines which scripts will succeed at generating word-of-mouth attendance so that producers can manage risks and avert theatrical losses ... and thereby create more consecutively successful productions. CFI also forecasts the profitability of most upcoming U.S. wide-releases and future film projects BEFORE they are seen by U.S. audiences as proof of its accuracy for its analytical applications.